Ukraine Counteroffensive Update for Oct 3 (Europe Edition): ‘Storm-Z Troops Wiped Out in ‘Nightmarish Engagements’

Overview:

• Russia’s Storm Z troops wiped out in “nightmarish engagements”
• Marginal Ukrainian gains around Zaporizhia and Bakhmut
• US aid cuts would be “devastating” for Ukraine soldiers
• Russia preparing defense lines in occupied Crimea
• EU pledges lasting support at 'historic' Kyiv meeting

Russia’s Storm Z troops wiped out in “nightmarish engagements”

A Reuters investigation has shed light on Russia’s “Storm-Z” squads, the “drunk recruits. insubordinate soldiers and convicts” forced to fight in Ukraine with barely any training, support or weapons.

From Reuters:

“The penal squads, each about 100-150 strong and embedded within regular army units, have typically been sent to the most exposed parts of the front and often sustain heavy losses, according to Reuters interviews with the people, who identified at least five Storm-Z teams fighting to repel a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the east and south.

“Three of the five Storm-Z fighters interviewed by Reuters, and the relatives of three other Storm-Z fighters, described nightmarish engagements that saw much of their squads wiped out.

“One fighter, with a conviction for theft who was recruited from prison, said all but 15 of the 120 men in his unit embedded with the 237th regiment were killed or wounded in fighting near Bakhmut in June.”

Read the full report here.

OPERATIONS – Zaporizhzhia and Bakhmut

According to the Institute for the Study of War, Ukraine’s armed forces made marginal gains in western Zaporizhzhia Region and near Bakhmut on Oct. 2.

The see-saw nature of the fighting in some areas of the front was highlighted by geo-located footage that suggests Ukrainian forces had retaken a trench system southwest of Robotyne that two days previously had been taken back by Russian forces after the liberation of the village.

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The ISW wrote: “ISW is updating its Oct. 1 assessment that Ukrainian forces lost positions in a trench system southwest of Robotyne (13 km south of Orikhiv) to Russian counterattacks between Sept. 13 and 30.

“Geolocated footage published on Oct. 2 and satellite imagery indicate that Ukrainian forces likely retook these positions sometime between Sept. 12 and 17 and currently hold them.”

US aid cuts would be “devastating” for Ukraine’s soldiers

Ukraine's troops would soon run short of essential ammunition and equipment if Republican hardliners succeed in stopping US military aid, undermining operations on the ground and reducing their ability to defend against Russian strikes, experts have told AFP.

Top American officials have repeatedly insisted the United States would back Kyiv for “as long as it takes,” and Washington has committed more than $43 billion in security aid since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 – over half the total from all Western donors.

But Republican opposition led Congress to remove new funding for Ukraine from a recent compromise bill to avoid a US government shutdown, highlighting that continued American support is not guaranteed.

“It would be devastating for the Ukrainians” if US aid is halted, said Mark Cancian, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“The Ukrainian military would weaken and then ultimately perhaps collapse,” though it “might be able to just hold on the defensive,” he said.

Read the full report here.

Russia preparing defense lines in occupied Crimea

Ukrainian partisans have reported that Russian forces are preparing defensive lines in occupied Crimea, suggesting the Kremlin is worried about the threat of a Ukrainian ground attack on the peninsula.

“After the successful attacks by Ukrainian forces on military facilities in Crimea and successes on the battlefield, the occupiers began to build new fortifications on the peninsula,” the ATESH partisan movement posted on Telegram.

 “The structures ‘dragon’s teeth’ were spotted near Feodosia and near Batalne.”

The group added: “We will do everything possible for them to be broken through successfully by the Defense Forces of Ukraine.”

EU pledges lasting support at “historic” Kyiv meeting

The European Union reiterated its long-term support for Ukraine on Monday as its foreign ministers convened in Kyiv for a “historic” gathering beyond the bloc’s borders.

The meeting came as disagreements grow among EU members over support for Ukraine and as Kyiv’s forces make limited gains in a high-stakes counteroffensive against Russian troops in the south and east of the country, AFP reports.

Concerns are also rising over aid from Washington, where a government funding deal this weekend left out fresh help for Ukraine due to opposition from hardline Republicans.

But the White House on Monday rejected claims by the Kremlin that the West was fatigued on providing aid for Ukraine. “If Putin thinks he can outlast us he's wrong,” Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said.

Read the full report here.