Victory of Netherlands’ Geert Wilders Could Spell Trouble for Ukraine

A hardline anti-EU advocate that calls for a “sovereign Netherlands,” Geert Wilders and his far-right PVV Freedom Party just won the Dutch elections and captured 37 seats in the Dutch parliament.

Wilders and his party ran under an anti-immigrant banner – anti-Islamic in particular – and rejected the idea of a singular European body, instead advocating for “a Netherlands that is in charge of its own currency, its own borders and makes its own rules.”

While the anti-immigration with its anti-Islamic stance will likely have an effect on immigrants and refugees from Africa and Asia, its impact on Ukrainian refugees in the Netherlands remains uncertain.

His party also called for a referendum for the Netherlands to leave the EU and stop contributing financially to the union prior to the referendum. It also rejected further EU expansion and wished to restore its veto power in Brussels.

As Ukraine’s EU negotiations are bound to start soon, Wilders’ victory could be a stumbling block to Ukraine’s chances of gaining a secured foothold in the upcoming negotiations.

The Netherlands has also been one of Ukraine’s biggest military partners since the invasion began. 

The Netherlands – alongside Denmark –  was the first to provide F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, a move that could drastically change the dynamics of the battlefield as the war is becoming a stalemate unless a technical breakthrough could be achieved, as per an earlier statement by Ukraine’s top commander.

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The Kremlin seems to think that more than a few of its top officers are responsible for filching millions of rubles’ worth of cash and military resources from the Russian war effort.

As Wilders and his parties have long been opposed to military aid to Ukraine, their victory could also affect Ukraine’s ability to defend against Russia. However, the circumstances on military aid remain uncertain as the PVV still needs to form a coalition government and none of the other parties are opposed to military support to Ukraine.

One potential scenario could be that the Dutch government will continue to provide military aid and financial aid to Ukraine but at a reduced rate.

While Wilders has previously condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, he also said the West should have blocked Ukraine from potentially joining NATO.

In an X (formerly Twitter) update on Feb. 24, 2022, the day the full-scale invasion started, he also rejected military aid to Ukraine with a comment saying: “Do not let Dutch households pay the price for a war that is not ours.”

He also said “sanctions are ineffective and also bad for the Netherlands” in another X update. In 2016, Wilders and his party said “no” to the Association Treaty between Ukraine and the EU.

Wilders and the PVV’s victory is the latest in a series of victories with an anti-Western stance that have swept over the EU, following the victory of pro-Russian populist Robert Fico in Slovakia.

Alongside Hungary, a staunch EU critic, there are now more diverse forces at play in the EU that could threaten the long-term stability of the political union.