Latest UK Defence Intelligence Update on Ukraine: January 28, 2024

INTELLIGENCE UPDATE

• On 22 January 2024, Russian authorities reported there had been 220 attacks on military enlistment offices since the conflict began in February 2022. Other statistics from media outlet Mediazona reported 113 attacks on enlistment offices recorded since 26 July Taken together, these statistics indicate a doubling of arson attacks on enlistment offices over the last six months.
• Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Director Sergey Naryshkin accuses those responsible for the arson attacks of acting at the behest of Western officials. However, the increase in attacks is highly likely due to a greater sense of disaffection with the war amongst the Russian population and especially those who would be mobilised should a second wave of mobilisation bels nnounced. Some of those accused of perpetrating such attacks have been charged with terrorism and treason.
• Further mobilisation would be a contradiction to Putin's promise at his 14 December 2023 annual news conference that there would be no further mobilisation - the attacks highly likely suggest a lack of confidence in this promise.