British Defence Intelligence Update Ukraine 23 March 2024

• On 17 March 2024, a Ukrainian intelligence official reportedly stated that Ukraine had successfully struck 12 Russian oil refineries with Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). On 15-16 March the Ukrainian media reported that three large refineries in the Samara oblast in southern Russia were also attacked.

• Some of the furthest facilities attacked are approximately 900km from Ukraine, underscoring the reach of the Ukrainian UAV attacks. These strikes are imposing a financial cost on Russia, impacting the domestic fuel market. Recent strikes against refineries have likely disrupted at least 10 per cent of Russia's refinery capacity. Depending on the extent of the damage, major repairs could take considerable time and expense. Sanctions are highly likely increasing the time and cost of sourcing replacement equipment.

• According to a Russian Energy Ministry official, there are plans to deploy Pantsir air defence systems to protect the refineries. However, given the size and scale of Russia's energy industry, it is unlikely that Russia will be able to protect all the vulnerable facilities.