Ghost Ships - Has Moscow Overstated Warship Numbers for Naval Maneuvers

Moscow has said “more than 400 warships and [other] vessels” would take part in an ongoing naval exercise – a number that a Russian news outlet has suggested has been overstated.

Russia’s Ministry of Defense announced the beginning of the drills, named “Ocean-2024,” on Tuesday. It said the exercises would involve “400 warships and submarines in the Pacific and Arctic Oceans, the Mediterranean, Caspian and Baltic Seas, as well as over 90,000 military personnel.”

Bloomberg described the maneuvers as the largest of their kind in 30 years; Kyiv Post reported on Monday that China would also participate, though it’s not clear if the Kremlin included Chinese vessels in the total.

Russian opposition news outlet Agentsvo reported on Wednesday that Russia’s current number of available vessels is likely to be half of that stated.

Agentsvo, citing online data, said Russia’s active fleet currently only consists of 265 vessels, a figure that includes 58 submarines and 83 corvettes.

The news site also commented that since the Black Sea fleet was not mentioned as participating, that would reduce the available total by about 50 vessels leaving “only a little more than 200 warships and submarines” to participate.

However, the Nuclear Threat Initiative estimated in August that Russia has 64 submarines – one of the largest submarine fleets in the world – which differs from the data cited by  Agentsvo.

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Speaking to reporters after the meeting, the Finnish head of government said “the security situation has changed.”

Kyiv Post is unable to ascertain the exact number of active naval vessels in service with Russia.

Ukraine claimed in March that Kyiv had sunk or disabled a third of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.

Vessels from Russia’s Black Sea Fleet have been subjected to Ukrainian strikes – despite Kyiv’s lack of a naval fleet – using drones and missiles, leading to substantial losses that prompted the British Ministry of Defence to describe the remaining fleet as “functionally inactive.”