President Volodymyr Zelensky in a Wednesday United Nations speech warned that Russia is planning to attack Ukraine’s atomic energy stations in upcoming weeks and months, potentially threatening the European continent with radioactive fallout worse than Chornobyl.
Russian strikes for more than two years have mostly ruined Ukraine’s conventional power production sites, and the Kremlin is now planning to strike the country’s nuclear power plants, in an attempt to browbeat the Ukrainian civilian population into submission, Zelensky said.
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“Since Russia can’t defeat our people’s resistance on the battlefield, Putin is looking for other ways to break the Ukrainian spirit. One of his methods is targeting our energy infrastructure. These are deliberate Russian attacks on our energy plants and the entire power grid,” Zelensky said. “This is how Putin is preparing for winter, hoping to torment millions and millions of Ukrainians. Ordinary families. Women, children. Ordinary towns. Ordinary villages. Putin wants to leave them in the dark and cold this winter.”
Prior to Russia’s February 2022 invasion, about 55% of Ukraine’s electricity was produced by atomic energy. At that time three stations were operational – near the cities of Zaporizhzhia, Khmelnytskyi, and Rivne. Russian troops occupied the Zaporizhzhia plant in the early days of the war.
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Russia’s bombardment campaign has destroyed all of Ukraine’s thermal energy plants and almost all hydroelectric capacity, making nuclear power overwhelmingly the country’s main source of electricity.
Zelensky said Ukraine’s intelligence agencies have obtained strong evidence Russia now intends “attacks on our nuclear power plants and their infrastructure aiming to disconnect the plants from the power grid.”
The Kremlin is planning its upcoming strikes on Ukraine’s nuclear power stations using satellite-gathered intelligence from “another nation,” Zelensky claimed, without naming the country.
Zelensky said “any” missile or drone strike on a Ukrainian atomic energy site could “lead to a nuclear disaster.” The very first point of Kyiv’s national peace plan is to push for multinational effort, and pressure on Russia, to ensure dangerous emissions or an explosion do not take place at any of Ukraine’s nuclear power stations, even as combat continues, he said.
A PBS video of Zelensky’s speech in entirety is here.
Polish President Andrzej Duda, in Wednesday comments reported by the PAP news agency, said “There is a risk of attacks on other (Ukrainian nuclear power) plants – Rivne or Khmelnytskyi – and we must take that into account. If such attacks occur, we will need to intervene immediately and bring in experts.”
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, in Sept. 21 comments reported by the news agency RBC -Ukraine, said national intelligence believes Russian attacks will focus on the open switchgear of nuclear power plants and transmission substations, as these are critical for the safe operation and controlled nuclear reaction in a reactor.
“Strikes against these facilities would carry a high risk of a nuclear incident, which would have global consequences. Ukrainian intelligence has already passed this information to our partners (and) the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has also been informed,” Sybiha said.
Ukraine is the site of the world’s worst nuclear power accident, a 1986 steam explosion of a single reactor at the Chornobyl atomic energy station. The blast exposed still-hot and reacting nuclear fuel to the atmosphere, ignited a fire and spread radioactive debris as far away as Sweden.
A Russian missile or drone attack on an active Ukrainian nuclear station almost certainly could not set off a full-scale atomic explosion but were power transmission infrastructure and fail-safe equipment at a site sufficiently damaged, plant engineers potentially could lose control of nuclear reaction in progress at one or more reactors, officials from Ukraine’s national atomic energy monopoly Energoatam have said.
Loss of power to cooling machinery that keeps atomic energy production inside a reactor under control, following combat, is “a permanent concern of ours,” Rafael Grossi, Head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said in Wednesday comments to the US state broadcaster PBS.
“There have already been eight complete blackouts [loss of power to safety equipment] at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. And, of course, we are aware of the events and incidents [Russian strikes] on other parts of the [Ukrainian] electric grid and the infrastructure,” Grossi said.
Zelensky told the UN General Assembly that Russian forces, in March 2022, fired on the Zaporizhzhia station directly, with tanks, and that Kremlin policymakers already long ago crossed the red line of the Kremlin’s deciding the risk of a nuclear accident was acceptable for military operations in Ukraine.
With six reactors, the Zaporizhzhia facility is Europe’s largest nuclear power station, and the only functioning nuclear power facility ever captured by an invading army in a war.
Grossi told the PBS interviewer the IAEA was “not aware” of Russian plans to strike Ukrainian nuclear facilities, contradicting claims by Ukraine’s top diplomat Sybiha four days earlier, who said Kyiv had informed the IAEA directly that Ukrainian intelligence had learned the attacks were likely.
Russia, on Aug. 26, launched its most massive attack against Ukraine’s power grid of the entire war, hurling a reported 127 missiles, some manufactured in North Korea, and 109+ kamikaze drones, mostly Iran-produced, at power production and transmission infrastructure across 15 regions in Ukraine.
Ukrainian air defense spokesmen claimed 102 missiles and 99 drones were shot down. No major strikes against Ukraine’s power grid have been launched since then.
The Ukraine-based air traffic tracking site, TRACKING, on Wednesday, reported a stream of Russian military air cargo flights by Il-76 heavy transport aircraft to the military airbase Engels-2, in Russia’s Saratov region, during the first three weeks of September. According to that platform, twelve aircraft each with a rated 40-ton cargo capacity delivered military freight to the airfield.
Engels-2 is the Russian Air Force’s main launch site for heavy bomber sorties launching missiles at Ukraine’s power grid. Some Ukrainian milbloggers reported the Il-76 aircraft were delivering dozens of newly manufactured cruise missiles to Engels-2, preparatory to uploading onto bombers for another massed strike against Ukraine’s power grid.
Kyiv Post could not confirm those reports.
Ukrainian drones hit Engels-2 on Sept. 17, setting off explosions and sparking major fires. Russian long-range bombers or missiles for the bombers to carry were the most likely targets of the air raid.
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