Georgia Faces Election Crossroads, with Russia or EU on the Horizon

Concerns are intensifying that Georgia’s upcoming election could push the country toward authoritarianism, jeopardizing its path to EU membership.

Although the South Caucasus nation was officially granted EU candidate status in December, the process was quickly paused after Georgia enacted a contentious “foreign agents” law that increases government control over NGOs and media outlets.

Critics have dubbed it the “Russian law” due to its similarities to legislation in Russia used to suppress opposition.

Former Georgian Dream (GD) party leader and current Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze has heightened fears by suggesting that, if he wins the October 26 election, he would ban prominent opposition parties, German state broadcaster Deutsche Welle has reported.

Pro-EU opposition

Kobakhidze, who took office after a leadership reshuffle in February, a move that was widely criticized, has also spread warnings of a so-called “global war party,” which he claims is trying to involve Georgia in a war with Russia.

This rhetoric has been interpreted as a shift away from both the EU and NATO.

The opposition in Georgia, though divided into five political alliances with differing liberal, conservative and social democratic views, is united in its pro-European stance and rejection of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime.

Recently, these parties agreed to put aside their differences for the election in an effort to resist what they perceive as an autocratic and anti-European threat posed by the ruling GD party.

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Anti-Western narrative

Many attribute Georgia’s recent political shift to billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, the founder of the GD party. Ivanishvili, who made his fortune in Russia, served as Georgia’s prime minister for a brief period before stepping back from the public eye in 2013—though many believe he continues to exert significant influence.

At party rallies, Ivanishvili has promoted an anti-Western narrative, vowing to end “foreign attempts to impose pseudo-liberal values” on Georgia.

An anonymous GD supporter who runs a prominent business with state ties claimed that the party’s critical stance on the EU is mere rhetoric and that Georgia remains committed to joining the bloc.

However, the supporter also said that GD is more focused on resetting its relationship with Russia. Meanwhile, GD campaign posters prominently display the EU flag alongside the slogan: “Towards Europe only with peace, dignity, and prosperity.”However, experts like Shota Utiashvili from the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies argue that GD’s pro-EU message is misleading, designed to blur distinctions between the ruling party and the opposition.

By claiming to support the EU, Utiashvili argues, GD seeks to undermine the opposition’s appeal and make it seem unnecessary to vote for them.

Troubled history with Russia

Russia looms large in Georgia’s recent history. In 2008, Moscow waged a five-day war against the country, after which it effectively occupied the Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, turning them into Russian military outposts.

While most of the world, including Germany, recognizes these regions as part of Georgia, a few nations, alongside Russia, view them as independent.

The loss of these territories remains a national trauma for Georgians. A 2020 survey found that the majority of Georgians prioritize reclaiming Abkhazia and South Ossetia over NATO or EU membership.

As the election nears, there are growing fears that a GD victory could lead Georgia down a path similar to Belarus, where political repression under President Alexander Lukashenko has been severe.

Potential for violence?

There is also concern that a tightly contested election could result in political violence. Nodar Kharshiladze, founder of the Georgian Analytical Center, warns that if the GD party manipulates the election results, “this could escalate into violent clashes, potentially resulting in casualties.”In August, Sergey Naryshkin, the head of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, issued vague warnings about potential Russian intervention if the pro-Russian GD party does not win.

However, many in Georgia view these threats as little more than rhetorical. Security experts note that due to Russia’s heavy involvement in the war in Ukraine, its military presence in Georgia, particularly in the regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, has been significantly reduced, making any direct intervention unlikely.