‘A Critical Enabler of Russia’ – Ukraine at War Update for Oct. 30

The president’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, was in Washington on Tuesday to discuss President Volodymyr Zelensky’s Victory Plan with US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan.

In a post on X, Yermak described the nature of their meeting:

“We discussed Ukraine’s Victory Plan, the implementation of the Peace Formula, the front lines, weapons, and North Korean soldiers whom Russia is preparing for war. Military assistance to Ukraine, sanctions against Russia, and increasing pressure on Moscow’s allies are essential,” Yermak wrote.

“Over the years of cooperation, Jake and I have managed to quickly find solutions, fulfilling the tasks set by our presidents, which were subsequently coordinated between the leaders of our nations.”

On the topic of weapons, Washington has still not changed its official position on the use of American-provided long-range weapons deep in Russian territory. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said in his visit to Kyiv this month that such weapons were not essential for use on those targets, insisting that Ukraine’s drones now had roughly the range of those American missiles.

Another sticking point on Zelensky’s road map to a just peace was Ukraine’s insistence that it join NATO immediately. US officials have not signaled a change of position on that either, saying that the Alliance would extend an invitation to Kyiv only after the war with Russia is over. But Sullivan, in remarks this summer, made it clear that this invitation would be extended when the time is right.

Other Topics of Interest

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December, 21, 2024

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

“And finally, yes, we said at NATO very simply Ukraine’s future is in NATO,” Sullivan said at a press conference in July. “We meant it. That’s not up for negotiation. That’s something that now all 31 allies have committed to.”

Russian forces closer to capturing Selydove, near Pokrovsk

While Russia’s defense ministry on Tuesday claimed that its forces had captured the Donetsk town of Selydove, as Moscow’s troops advance closer to the key logistics hub of Pokrovsk, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has not confirmed that the town has been completely overtaken, as many Western media outlets suggest. ISW analysts clarified that the Kremlin’s forces have made significant advances in districts around the town.

“Russian forces recently advanced in western and central Selydove (southeast of Pokrovsk)…” the ISW wrote “and recently advanced in central Novodmytrivka (southeast of Pokrovsk and southeast of Selydove)… Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced north and southeast of Novodmytrivka, southwest of Selydove, and south of Hirnyk.”

Meanwhile, the ISW continued, a Russian source claimed that small groups of Ukrainian forces are still operating in western Selydove.

The frontline town sits about 10 miles (16 kilometers) southeast of Pokrovsk, an important transportation hub in that part of the region.

“As a result of successful operations... the town of Selidovo in the Donetsk region is fully liberated,” the Russian Defense Ministry said in a release (using the Russian spelling for Selydove.)

According to an AFP analysis of data from the ISW, Moscow took 478 square kilometers (about 185 square miles) of Ukrainian territory in October, the highest monthly total since Russia’s full-scale invasion began.

The ISW, on the other hand, said in its report on Tuesday that such comparisons are “highly misleading.”

Ottawa announces the equivalent of $3.7 billion as part of a G7 loan to be paid for by profit on frozen Russian assets

Canada will provide Ukraine with CAD 5 billion (about $3.7 billion) as part of the G7’s $50 billion loan to Kyiv paid for by profits on Russian assets frozen by Western sanctions.

“Canada was the first country to advocate for using these assets to support Ukraine, and we are proud to be providing the largest per capita contribution: 5 billion Canadian dollars,” Canada’s Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland announced.

Ottawa and its allies have frozen nearly $280 billion in Russian assets.

“Within the G7, all countries have agreed that Russian sovereign assets will remain immobilized until Russia pays for the damage it continues to inflict on Ukraine,” Freeland said.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Liberal Party have been gradually losing support in Ottawa’s parliament, with opposition leaders calling for early federal elections (which must be held by October 2025). The Bloc Québécois leader, Yves-François Blanchet, stated Tuesday that Trudeau’s “days are numbered,” hinting they would join forces with the Conservative Party-led coalition. Trudeau has relied on the Bloc’s support in parliament to pass legislation.

US asking China to convince Pyongyang to withdraw troops from Ukraine, CNN reports

According to anonymous government sources quoted by CNN, the US is pleading with China to convince North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to withdraw his troops from Ukraine, appealing to Beijing’s better senses to avoid further destabilization in Europe and Asia.

CNN’s sources reported that Sullivan “directed the US government to engage the PRC [China] and to organize an effort to get other countries to reach out to the PRC as well over our concerns about DPRK [North Korea] sending troops into Russia and the implications of that.”

US State Department spokesperson Mathew Miller also alluded to these efforts this week, stating: “We have communicated with the PRC about this matter to make clear that we are concerned about it, and that they ought to be concerned about this destabilizing action by two of its neighbors, Russia and North Korea.”

“Western officials are not optimistic, however, that China will intervene with North Korea’s plans, the sources said,” CNN’s report continued. “China has continued to be a ‘critical enabler’ of Russia’s war effort, according to the [anonymously quoted] NATO official, and is still fueling Russia’s defense industry with substantial amounts of dual-use goods like microelectronics and machine tools that can be used to build weapons.”

The US Treasury recently installed new sanctions on Chinese entities involved in supplying drones to Moscow’s armed forces about the same time that Russian leader Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Russia for the BRICS summit, where the Kremlin’s allies discussed the “special operation” in Ukraine, as Moscow calls it.

Meanwhile, South Korea has been reassessing its policy for not sending lethal aid to Ukraine, as the country’s leaders spoke on the phone Tuesday.

Zelensky said he discussed the deployment of North Korean troops to aid Russia with South Korea’s president, Yoon Suk Yeol, and agreed to strengthen security cooperation.

“We discussed the involvement of North Korean military forces in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The conclusion is clear: this war is becoming internationalized, extending beyond two countries,” Zelensky wrote on social media.