According to what Trump and his advisors said during the election campaign, the omens for Ukraine are indeed worrying.
The measures proposed by Trump’s team revolve around:
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- Cutting, or stopping US aid to Ukraine
- Forcing Kyiv to accept a compromise peace settlement favorable to Moscow in order to persuade Putin to end, or suspend, his war against Ukraine
That could mean:
- Ukraine will be forced to accept an indefinite ceasefire agreement on the current frontline, i.e. on its territory
- Ukraine is forced to give up territories (Crimea, Donbas)
- Ukraine is excluded from NATO membership
- Ukraine is "neutralized" and turned into a buffer
The imposition of such conditions would probably:
- Be rejected by the Zelensky leadership and the majority of the Ukrainian population
- Cause divisions in Ukrainian society – if compromises are accepted – and possibly lead to the collapse of the Zelensky government
- Fuel resentment against the US and disbelief in the West as a reliable ally/supporter of democracy, state sovereignty and European security
- Make Ukraine's reconstruction and recovery more difficult (reparations? investments? etc.)
- Millions of displaced Ukrainians would remain outside their "abandoned" country
- Russia would go unpunished, and what a signal this would send to the world
- Russian influence/hegemony in the neighborhood would be restored – with Belarus and Georgia, and possibly Moldova, also being written off?
ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December, 21, 2024
- Europe itself would feel abandoned and even more insecure by an isolationist MAGA US
- The enemies of democracy would feel triumphant and be encouraged
What would be the quid pro quo offered to Ukraine to persuade it to make concessions?
Land, for peace, but what kind of peace?
Security guarantees and/or NATO membership?
EU membership?
Factors that need to be taken into account:
Which line will Trump actually take? Still unclear
Will he be a macho type who will not want to be seen as betraying Ukraine by appeasing Putin?
Who will he appoint as his advisors and senior officials in charge of security, foreign affairs management, etc.?
How will the EU and the UK react? Will Trump’s position unite, galvanize or divide them?
Zelensky’s current predicament
Zelensky and Ukraine are in an unfortunate situation that forces the Ukrainian president to swallow his pride and try to ingratiate himself with the US president-elect and his allies (e.g. Hungary’s Viktor Orban). But he has no other realistic option and his reaction is understandable.
His main tasks at the moment are:
- Try to convince Trump’s team not to abandon Ukraine
- The Ukrainian president might wish to consider replacing his ambassador to Washington who alienated the Republican leadership during the presidential election
- Maintain morale in his own country and not fuel speculation that he might capitulate
- Win the support of Ukraine’s other partners in the hope that they can influence Trump and maintain their own support for Ukraine
- Persuade outgoing US President Joe Biden to take steps to ensure that support for Ukraine is maintained, at least in the immediate future
- Persuade Trump, by appealing to his ego, that he could be remembered in his legacy as the arbiter of a just peace and show he is not subject to Putin’s influence the way he has been portrayed and predicted to be
- Persuade Trump that if he plays his cards right he could be revered as a powerful leader who rescued Europe from itself and reinvigorated NATO by getting the alliance to do its fair share
- Persuade Trump to encourage investments in Ukraine’s Defense and Space Industries, e.g., so they can have their own satellites for intelligence gathering without relying on US and allied resources
- Persuade Trump that his pivot is his own idea and let him take the credit. He could say “That’s all I wanted all along. It was part of the ‘weave’ to get Europe and Ukraine to stand up for themselves”
While many of these suggestions may seem to fall into the category of psychological manipulation, one must grant that so much of politics is exactly that.
Both Trump and Zelensky have proven to be masters at managing media perception. This perhaps could be the first point of affinity between the two that could usher in a fresh relationship between the newly elected “leader of the free world” and the leader of the world’s ongoing fight for freedom.
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