“Latvia was, is, and will be a staunch supporter of Ukraine. Trump or not,” former Latvian Finance Minister Vjačeslavs Dombrovskis told Kyiv Post.
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That support came from an understanding of Ukraine’s struggle, and that understanding, in turn, came from Latvia’s similar past with Ukraine – a past that Dombrovskis knows all too well.
“For Latvians, the Ukrainian struggle for independence has been so reminiscent of Latvians’ struggle for independence, especially against Russia,” Dombrovskis said.
Speaking to Kyiv Post on the sidelines of the Kyiv International Economic Forum (KIEF) on Nov. 7, Dombrovskis discussed his country’s support for Ukraine and the parallel between the two.
“Latvia has a long history of occupation by Russia, so Latvians really feel for Ukrainians.”
Latvia’s support for Ukraine
Latvia is in the top five, if not the top three nations in the world in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) spending used to support Ukraine, Dombrovskis said.
Research by the think tank Kiel Insitute showed that Latvia ranks fourth in GDP spending at 1.4% of its GDP since 2022, with Denmark leading the chart, followed by Estonia, Lithuania, then Latvia – all three Baltic states.
According to a security agreement between Ukraine and Latvia signed in April, 0.25% of Latvia's GDP each year, valid for 10 years starting 2024, will go towards defense aid for Ukraine – which amounts to €120 million ($127 million), per a Ukrainian Ministry of Defense press release in October.
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“In cash terms, Latvia’s defense sector has provided military support in the amount of €370 million [$390 million], including unmanned aerial vehicles, helicopters, howitzers, weapons and personal equipment, ammunition, anti-tank weapons, Stinger air defense systems, radars, ration packs, IT equipment, land vehicles, petrol and various weapons systems,” read an announcement by Latvia’s Ministry of Defense.
Dombrovskis attributed that aid to Latvia’s understanding of Ukraine’s struggles “for independence… especially against Russia.”
“Latvia has a long history of occupation by Russia, so Latvians really feel for Ukrainians … And they are willing to go actually at quite some lengths to help Ukraine,” Dombrovskis said.
“I’ve never really seen the Latvians until the age of maybe 18.”
Parallels with Ukraine?
When prompted by Kyiv Post whether he sees a parallel between Ukraine and Latvia, he said there’s some but it’s “in no way as strong as it is in Latvia.”
He then recalled the influx of Russian settlers when Latvia was occupied by the USSR – and he noted he descended from this circle of settlers, with his father being Ukrainian and his mother Russian, where life’s paths brought them to Latvia.
“The point is that there’s been quite a substantial settlement of Russian speakers – I guess you can say more broadly because they are both Russians, Ukrainians, Belarusians and the others – to Latvia,” Dombrovskis said.
When Latvia regained its independence between the late 1980s and early 1990s, Latvians were “barely a majority in their own country,” he said.
“For example, if I reflect on my personal experience, the places I lived, like the Russian neighborhoods, I’ve never really seen the Latvians until the age of maybe 18. So there [were] kind of two parallel communities.
“So of course, the Latvians were gravely concerned that this Russian minority – which is almost a majority and certainly behaves itself as a majority – would want to take its back to … some new version of the Soviet Union or something like this,” Dombrovskis said.
“So, this has defined Latvian politics over the last 30 years,” he added.
As a result, he said while both Ukraine and Latvia have a substantial Russian-speaking population – with the eastern regions being predominantly Russian-speaking, like the Latgale region in Latvia – the parallel exists but “certainly not as strong as it is for Latvia.”
“So we are saying up to 20% of Latvia’s population are those who are potentially ripe to become some sort of [Russian] agents.”
Russian influence in Latvian society
When asked whether Russian subversions are an issue in Latvia as in the rest of Europe, Dombrovskis said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 “opened many old wounds,” and he estimates “up to 20%” of Latvia’s population could potentially help advance the Kremlin’s interests.
He said the relationship between the Latvian and Russian-speaking communities in Latvia has been revolving around the Russian occupation of Latvia, and when the full-scale invasion started in 2022, the question as to whose side is one on became inevitable.
“The kind of argument from the Russian-speaking community was that ‘well, this was not physically us … yes, the Russians have occupied you, but we are different people.’
“This has reopened the old wounds for the Latvians, and of course, the next thing they asked the Russian speakers in Latvia was ‘Well, whose side are you on?’” Dombrovskis said, adding that many “failed to give answer any answer at all.”
He said that based on his estimates – which were based on different surveys – of the Russian-speaking minorities in Latvia, which made up 40% of its population, one-third are sure to be supporters of Russian President Vladimir Putin, one-third are Ukraine supporters, and the remaining are “on the fence” about the war.
“So, we are saying up to 20% of Latvia’s population are those who are potentially ripe to become some sort of [Russian] agents,” he surmised.
He said Latvian special services are sure to be monitoring, analyzing and identifying Russian agents, but likely no one can truly tell how many there are.
“Latvia was, is, and will be a staunch supporter of Ukraine. Trump or not.”
Trump’s impact on NATO, Latvia, Ukraine
When asked if he thinks US President-elect Donald Trump’s return to office could impact Latvia and Ukraine, Dombrovskis said it would in no way affect Latvia’s support for Ukraine.
“Zero effect … Latvia’s commitment to Ukraine does not depend on Trump or [Democratic candidate Kamala] Harris or whoever else. … Latvia was, is, and will be a staunch supporter of Ukraine. Trump or not,” he said.
When prompted further on his thoughts about Trump’s potential impact on NATO, considering Trump’s attempt to withdraw the US from the military alliance during his last presidency, Dombrovskis said if Ukraine falls, Russia will invade the Baltics.
“In Latvia, there is understanding that if Ukraine either falls or there is some kind of a peace deal, which is very much on Putin’s terms, then there is understanding in Latvia that within … 10 years, the Russians will invade the Baltic states,” Dombrovskis said.
“So, we are next.”
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