Biden administration’s latest approval for Kyiv to strike deep inside Russia with US weaponry could put hundreds of Russian military objects at risk.
According to an August analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), allowing Ukraine to strike Russian territories with the US-made Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) – the newer versions capable of reaching targets within 300 km (190 miles) – could allow Ukraine to hit at least 245 Russian military objects, including 15 airbases.
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The airbases are located in Russia’s Bryansk, Kaluga, Kursk, Lipetsk, Voronezh, Rostov and Krasnodar regions.
- Seshcha Airbase, Bryansk region
- Shaykovka Airbase, Kaluga region
- Vostochny Airbase, Kursk region
- Lipetsk Airbase, Lipetsk region
- Malshevo Airbase, Voronezh region
- Buturlinovka Airbase, Voronezh region
- Millerovo Airbase, Rostov region
- Morozovsk Airbase, Rostov region
- Zernograd Airbase, Rostov region
- Rostov-na-Donu Tsentralny Airbase, Rostov region
- Taganrog-Yuzhny Airbase, Rostov region
- Taganrog-Tsentralny Airbase, Rostov region
- Kushchevskaya Airbase, Krasnodar region
- Yeysk Airbase, Krasnodar region
- Primorsko-Akhtarsk Airbase, Krasnodar region
Ukraine has for months appealed to Washington to lift the restrictions on striking Russian airfields with ATACMS, arguing that they host warplanes that carry glide bombs against both military and civilian targets in Ukraine.
George Barros, an ISW analyst, created a map that outlined the range and potential targets in Russia of ATACMS compared to the 77 km (50 miles) range of the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), where the HIMARS can only reach 20 of ATACMS’s 245 potential targets.
However, the ISW stated that the map is “conservative and only identifies a portion of all the military objects in range of ATACMS” due to the spontaneous nature of military field camps and some military installations.
The terms of the latest approval are, as yet, unclear. The decision was reportedly prompted by North Korea’s troop deployments to Russia’s Kursk region, meaning the potential ATACMS strikes could be limited to halting Moscow’s initiative in retaking the Kursk region.
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The nature and coordinates of the Russia military objects were listed in detail at the bottom of the ISW report.
What about Ukrainian drones?
Technically, Ukrainian drones are already capable of reaching the objects listed and far beyond, but the US ATACMS still possesses the speed that drones do not.
In September, Kyiv Post reported that Ukrainian drones were capable of reaching 1,800 km (1,120 miles), all the way to Russia’s Ural mountains, but they could be easily intercepted, and their slow speed meant that Russia could simply deploy the aircraft before the drones arrived.
However, ATACMS, with a terminal velocity of Mach 5 before reaching its target, can alleviate that issue.
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