Russia Escalates Push for Full Control of Donetsk Region – ISW

Russia has heavily ramped up its military efforts in Ukraine, focusing on its long-standing goal of taking complete control of the Donetsk region, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported in its recent assessment for Nov. 24.

Analysts say this marks a departure from the stalemate that has characterized much of the hostilities over the past year.

"Russian forces’ recent confirmed battlefield gains near Vuhledar and Velyka Novosilka demonstrate that the war in Ukraine is not stalemated," the report points out.

The frontline in Donetsk Oblast [region] is becoming increasingly fluid as Russian forces recently have been advancing at a significantly quicker rate than they did in the entirety of 2023."

However, while these recent advances are notable, they still fall short of the rapid maneuvers seen during the initial stages of the invasion in early 2022. The ISW highlights that Russian forces remain unable to replicate large-scale operational breakthroughs, relying instead on incremental tactical gains.

The ISW outlines several potential courses of action (COA) for Russian forces:

• encircling Velikaya Novoselka by advancing from multiple directions to bypass Ukrainian positions south of the settlement;
• targeting Kurakhovo by progressing toward Andreevka to trap Ukrainian forces near Kurakhovo and level the front line;
• threatening Selidovo by pushing along the Pustynka-Solntsevka line toward Andriivka to disrupt Ukrainian withdrawal routes and consolidate Russian control north of Kurakhovo.

It is unclear whether the Russian command will focus on one approach or pursue all simultaneously.

Experts believe that Russia may also be preparing for operations in southeastern Dnipropetrovsk region to support its campaign in Donetsk. This would involve cutting off Ukrainian supply routes to further weaken their defensive lines in the region.

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The number of mercenaries is in the hundreds, though many of them claimed they were duped into fighting after being lured by high salaries.

Ukraine has effectively repelled earlier Russian offensives, particularly near Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk in 2024. However, the Kremlin’s broader goal of forcing Ukraine’s surrender and undermining its sovereignty remains unchanged.