ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December, 30, 2024

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated Russia’s demand that Ukraine renounce its right to sovereignty and territorial integrity as a precondition to start peace talks, indicating that Russia is not interested in good faith negotiations.
• The Kremlin appears to be prioritizing Russia’s force generation requirements and domestic political stability over efforts to mitigate economic pressure and labor shortages going into 2025.
• US President Joe Biden announced an additional military aid package for Ukraine worth $2.5 billion on December 30.
• Russia and Ukraine conducted one of the largest prisoners of war (POW) exchanges in 2024 on December 30, resulting in the return of 189 Ukrainian POWs - some of whom spent over two years in Russian captivity since early 2022.
• Russia and Ukraine conducted one of the largest prisoners of war (POW) exchanges in 2024 on December 30, resulting in the return of 189 Ukrainian POWs - some of whom spent over two years in Russian captivity since early 2022.
• Russian border guards withdrew from the Agarak border checkpoint on the Armenia-Iran border on December 30 after controlling the checkpoint for over 30 years.
• Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk. Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Vuhledar, and Velyka Novosilka.
• A Russian milblogger who focuses on Russian veteran issues claimed that Russian forces have significantly strengthened the Russian international border with Ukraine since 2022 and no longer overwhelmingly rely on conscripts and alleged deserters as border security.

Authors: Christina Harward, Davit Gasparyan, Angelica Evans, Nate Trotter, and Frederick W. Kagan.

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