The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) mounted a second offensive in the Kursk region on Sunday, Jan. 5, targeting at least three areas of the salient making tactical advances, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) report.
The Russian defense ministry confirmed that Ukrainian forces had launched a counterattack in Kursk, stating, “At about 9:00 am Moscow time (06:00 UTC), the enemy launched a counterattack to halt the advance of Russian troops in the Kursk direction.”
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Reports from pro-Kremlin military bloggers indicated significant Ukrainian pressure. According to Moscow, Ukraine deployed two tanks, a dozen armored vehicles, and a demolition unit against Berdin, a village approximately 15 kilometers (10 miles) northeast of Sudzha. Pro-Russian Telegram channels, including Rybar, suggested that the “main events” of Ukraine’s offensive may yet to be seen.
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Ukrainian officials have largely refrained from commenting on the operation. However, Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksiy Honcharenko criticized premature positive reports, saying, “I can’t understand why it is necessary to officially report on the Kursk region. Maybe it’s better to do it afterward when the operation is over?”
In contrast, Andriy Yermak, the Ukrainian presidential chief of staff, said, “Russia is getting what it deserves.”
Andriy Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation under the National Defense Council, highlighted the operation’s success in surprising Russian forces. “In the Kursk region, the Russians are very worried because they were attacked from several directions, and it was a surprise for them,” he said.
Summary of the Jan. 5 Kursk offensive
According to the ISW report, Ukrainian forces intensified their offensive in the Kursk region on Jan. 5, making tactical advances in multiple sectors. Despite some reported Russian advances, Ukrainian forces appear to have maintained pressure and made notable tactical gains.
Here’s a breakdown of the key developments:
Ukrainian Advances
Berdin-Novosotnitsky Direction:
- Ukrainian forces launched three waves of mechanized assaults, reportedly using a battalion’s worth of armored vehicles.
- Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian troops advancing near Berdin and entering the southern part of the settlement.
Leonidovo and Pushkarnoye Directions:
- Ukrainian forces intensified operations southeast of Korenevo and conducted a platoon-sized assault near Pushkarnoye.
- Additional progress was reported in open areas southwest of Berdin and near Novosotnitsky, with Ukrainian forces occupying Cherkasskoye, Porechnoye, Martynovka, and Mikhaylovka.
As reported by the ISW, Ukrainian forces reportedly advanced across open areas west of Yamskaya Step and Novaya Sorochina, as well as near Nikolskiy and Alexandria. Russian Milbloggers speculated that these actions could be part of a diversionary effort or a precursor to a larger offensive.
Russian Counterattacks
Southeast of Sudzha and Korenevo:
- Russian forces launched counterattacks, advancing in western and southern Makhnovka and pushing Ukrainian forces from Dmitryukov.
- Russian units also reportedly moved into southeastern Kurilovka, though this remains unconfirmed.
East of Leonidovo and Malaya Loknya:
Russian forces counterattacked towards Nikolskiy and unsuccessfully attempted to advance toward Malaya Loknya.
As outlined by ISW, Russian defense included elements from the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade, Chechen’s Akhmat Spetsnaz, Wagner Group veterans, and BARS (Volunteer Reserve) units.
Russian milbloggers expressed concerns that Ukraine’s renewed offensive in Kursk might be a feint, aimed at diverting attention from other front-line operations.
Russian concerns over Ukraine’s ‘new’ advanced tactics
Russian sources expressed concern about their military’s capacity to counter Ukraine’s evolving combined arms strategies, as outlined by ISW, which integrate electronic warfare (EW), long-range strikes, and ground operations.
On Jan. 5, several Russian milbloggers reported that Ukrainian EW interference hindered Russian forces from operating drones to counter assaults in the Kursk region. This disruption significantly impaired Russian defenses against Ukrainian mechanized attacks. Some claimed that drones using fiber optic cables were more resistant to Ukrainian EW measures, while others noted limited use of FPV and Lancet drones by Russian forces.
Russian officials announced the interception of three unspecified Ukrainian missiles over the Kursk region, suggesting Ukraine’s efforts to combine long-range strike capabilities alongside tactical EW systems. A milblogger claimed that Ukrainian HIMARS strikes near Bolshoye Soldatskoye and other areas targeted Russian reinforcements, artillery, and drone operators.
The ISW report highlighted the significance of Ukraine’s battlefield innovations:
“Reports that Ukrainian forces are using long-range fires to interdict Russian rear areas and EW to degrade Russian drones in support of Ukrainian mechanized advances indicate that Ukrainian forces operating in Kursk are employing more effective combined arms tactics.”
Ukraine’s position in Kursk could play critical role in future negotiations
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Monday, Jan. 6, that the importance of Ukraine’s position in Russia’s Kursk region could play a critical role in any potential negotiations. Speaking in Seoul, Blinken said the Biden administration aims to ensure Ukraine holds a strong hand as future talks become more likely.
“Their position in Kursk is an important one because certainly it’s something that would factor in any negotiation that may come about in the coming year,” Blinken said.
He highlighted the need for “adequate security assurances” for Ukraine even if negotiations begin, warning that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ambitions remain unchecked.
“There is going to be, at some point, a ceasefire. It’s not going to be in Putin’s mind ‘game over’,” Blinken said. “His imperial ambitions remain, and what he will seek to do is to rest, refit, and eventually re-attack. There must be an adequate deterrent in place so that he doesn’t do that.”
However, he did not directly address the ongoing operations in Kursk.
Strategic gains and losses in Kursk
Ukraine’s counteroffensive in Kursk began in August, with a shock ground incursion that captured dozens of villages. However, progress has slowed due to reinforcements sent by Moscow, including North Korean troops.
According to Ukrainian military sources, Kyiv currently controls around 800 square kilometers (308 square miles) of the Kursk region, down from previous claims of nearly 1,400 square kilometers (540 square miles).
President Volodymyr Zelensky has emphasized the strategic value of the Kursk operation, describing it as a means to strengthen Ukraine’s negotiating position and achieve other military objectives. Last year, Zelensky said that the operation had improved Ukraine’s “exchange fund” for prisoner swaps while diverting tens of thousands of Russian troops from the eastern front.
Recent fighting reportedly inflicted heavy losses on Russian forces, with Zelensky claiming the destruction of “up to a battalion of North Korean infantry soldiers and Russian airborne troops” in the past week.
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