Colonial talk is back.
With the countdown to US President-elect Donald Trump returning to the White House, Europeans have discussed for months how to avoid ending up on his menu.
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Now, parts of Europe are on his shopping list.
Greenland, a largely autonomous Danish territory, as well as the Panama Canal, were both needed “for economic security,” Trump said, refusing to rule out using either economic or military muscle to take them by force.
European leaders have been unequivocal.
To many, Trump sounds like Russia’s Vladimir Putin talking about Ukraine or Chinese President Xi Jinping talking about reintegrating Taiwan.
Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz and other leaders made clear that “borders must not be moved by force,” while EU’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas called to “respect the territorial integrity and sovereignty” of Greenland.
But beyond the frenzy on this side of the Atlantic, one country will particularly be watching Trump’s territorial claims very closely: Russia.
Moscow has long sought to justify territorial annexations of Ukraine’s Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions and the Crimean Peninsula after the international community deemed its annexation referenda in occupied territories a sham.
Building on this, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has offered some advice to Trump: take into account the opinions of those in Greenland, just as Russia did with the residents of its “four new regions of the Russian Federation.”
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Putin would have a field day if Trump followed through. It would crack open the West’s once-untouchable stance on defending state sovereignty and territorial integrity.
This crack appeared in Europe’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Israel’s war on Gaza, which was marred by accusations of ‘double standards’ in addressing such violations or applying international law.
Russia’s framing of its invasion as a step to pre-empt neocolonial encroachment by NATO, while being a colonial war of conquest itself, has been a popular narrative not only in the Global South but also in Western fringes on the far left and far right.
Even if Trump’s announcements end up being hot air, they will provide fertile ground for Russia, China, and Co. to seize upon as evidence of Western hypocrisy and inconsistency.
And in the worst-case scenario, if Trump acts on his words, it could open the floodgates for territorial claims and inspire rival powers to make their own moves.
EU IN THE WORLD
SYRIA SANCTIONS | While some EU countries remain hesitant about the new Syrian government, European foreign ministers are ready to consider gradually lifting the bloc’s sanctions if Damascus’s leaders promise to behave.
Top diplomats from the Middle East and Europe are due in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, on Sunday to discuss how to encourage Syria’s transition.
Saudi Arabia is among the countries in the region taking a more cautious approach to Syria’s new leadership compared to Turkey and Qatar, which were the first to re-open embassies in Damascus after the fall of Assad.
DEFENCE BRIEFING
LAST RAMSTEIN? | At the last pre-Trump US-led Ukraine Defence Contact Group talks, Kyiv’s military aid contributors set production goals to sustain arms donations to the war-torn country through 2027.
EDIP THREATS I France’s Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu has doubled down on the country’s insistence that EU defence cash should be spent in Europe despite growing pressure to have US and other foreign companies get a share.
CABLES WOES I NATO’s northern members will increase monitoring of undersea infrastructure and the Russian shadow fleet following an incident in the Baltic Sea.
SWISS GAP I EU countries approved Switzerland joining a military mobility project aimed at ensuring the seamless movement of armies and defence equipment across Europe and to the US, filling in a keyhole in the map.
WIDER EUROPE
MOLDOVA FREEZE | Moldova hopes to use European Union funds to keep its lights on after the shutdown of Russian gas supplies to its rogue region of Transnistria triggered price spikes and blackouts.
We have a handy explainer of everything you need to know about the region, its worsening crisis and why it all matters to the rest of Europe.
SLOVAK BLACKMAIL I Slovakia may halt humanitarian aid and emergency electricity supplies to Ukraine and leverage its veto power in EU matters should Kyiv not resume gas flows through its territory.
ARMENIA PUSH | Amid a growing rift with former ally Russia, Armenia has passed a bill calling for the country to submit an application to begin EU membership talks with Brussels.
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