ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 3, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Russian forces continued to suffer high losses in January 2025 despite a slower rate of advance as compared with previous months in late 2024.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted drone strikes against Russian oil and gas infrastructure in Volgograd and Astrakhan oblasts on the night of February 2 to 3.
• Ukrainian forces continue to innovate with drone operations to maintain their technological advantage over Russia and bring about battlefield effects.
• The United Nations (UN) Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) expressed concern about the “sharp rise” in reports of Russian forces executing Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs).
• Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on February 3 that Ukraine has started implementing organizational reforms to transition the Ukrainian Armed Forces into a “corps structure.”
• Unspecified actors assassinated Armen Sargsyan, the founder of the “Arbat” Special Purpose Battalion, who has been involved in Russia’s hybrid activities and invasions of Ukraine since 2014.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Borova, and Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Borova, Lyman, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and in the Dnipro direction.
• The Russian government is expanding the federal “Time of Heroes” program, which aims to install Kremlin-selected veterans into government positions, to occupied Ukraine as part of long-term efforts to integrate occupied Ukraine into Russia.

Authors: Christina Harward, Olivia Gibson, Davit Gasparyan, Nicole Wolkov, and Frederick W. Kagan.

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