Russia Gearing Up for Full-Scale War Against NATO, Denmark Says

Russia could be capable of launching a full-scale war against NATO within the next five years, as reported by Denmark’s Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS).

In a declassified report published on Feb. 11, the DDIS highlighted the growing Russian threat to Denmark and other NATO members. The assessment reads that Russia is actively rebuilding its military to match NATO’s capabilities, with significant support from China, North Korea, and Iran.

This aligns with previous warnings from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) about Moscow’s ongoing military buildup and efforts to reshape its society for a future confrontation with the West.

While the intelligence report states that Moscow has not yet decided to initiate a large-scale war against NATO, it warns that Russia’s willingness to take such a risk could increase if European nations fail to strengthen their defenses. 

As per ISW, the British International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) reported on Feb. 12 that while European countries collectively spent $457 billion on defense in 2024, Russia alone spent $462 billion, underlining the scale of its military expansion.

The DDIS report suggests that Russia is currently avoiding actions that could trigger NATO’s Article 5 – the alliance’s mutual defense clause. However, Moscow may grow bolder if it perceives NATO as weak, particularly if doubts arise over continued US military support for Europe.

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A key warning in the report is that a ceasefire or frozen conflict in Ukraine, particularly on terms favorable to Russia, could free up significant Russian military resources for future conflicts.

The timeline outlined by Danish intelligence paints a stark picture:

• Within six months, Russia could wage a localized war against a neighboring country other than Ukraine.
• In two years, Moscow could pose a credible threat to NATO’s Baltic members.
• In five years, Russia could be ready for a large-scale war in Europe – assuming NATO does not match Russia’s military buildup.