Kyiv Post consulted specialists and politicians on how realistic it is to hold elections in Ukraine amid the ongoing war and what would need to be done to make them possible.
Chaos in the Middle of War.
Ukraine faces the prospect of holding elections. Everyone is talking about them – Ukraine’s Western partners, especially US officials, and a segment of the Ukrainian population that supports the idea.
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Russia would also like to see elections in Ukraine, though for its own reasons (which do not change Russia’s overall non-recognition of Ukraine as a sovereign state).
Are elections and a change of administration in Ukraine possible? How will pro-Russian forces attempt to re-emerge? Is the Georgian scenario possible in Ukraine, and what advantages might Moscow seek to gain from the process?
Elections and War: When and How?
Parliamentary and presidential elections were supposed to take place long ago – in the summer of 2024 and in May 2024, respectively. However, the Constitution of Ukraine prohibits holding elections during martial law.
Moreover, during a full-scale war, organizing elections is extremely dangerous. Despite the impressive success of Ukraine’s air defense systems, strengthened by Western allies, the entire country remains vulnerable to Russian missile attacks. Dozens of cities and rural communities in frontline zones endure constant artillery shelling and drone strikes.
Nevertheless, while the Biden administration did not pressure Kyiv on the issue of elections, under Trump, the rhetoric has shifted.
Missiles Running Low: Zelensky Warns of Patriot Shortage Amid Security Talks
“Every democratic country has elections. We also once held elections during the war. This is a sign of a healthy democracy,” said Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine Keith Kellogg.
Representatives of the EU remain neutral – Europeans believe it is exclusively Ukraine’s right to decide when to hold elections. When Kyiv Post directly asked EU Ambassador Katarína Mathernová about the issue, her response was clear: No, Europe will not exert any pressure on Kyiv in this regard.
“The American experience of elections during the war is different from the European one,” says Olga Aivazovska, a long-time analyst and election observer, and Chair of the Board of the Civil Network OPORA.
“The United States held elections during the devastating and difficult Civil War in 1864 when President Lincoln was re-elected. They also held elections during World War II, when President Roosevelt was re-elected in 1944,” said Aivazovska.
“However, the key difference is that, at that time, the war did not take place on US soil, except for the attack on Pearl Harbor [when Hawaii was a territory, not a state]. European countries, of course, did not hold elections during World War II,” she said, pointing out the important distinction.
The main issue in Ukraine is that full-scale military operations are taking place on its territory. Currently, 18% of Ukraine is occupied, while other areas suffer from continuous shelling due to their proximity to the front line or the Russian border.
One official, who pointed out several voter issues – including the millions of refugees currently abroad, told Kyiv Post on condition of anonymity:
“Out of 40 million people, we have several million under occupation, up to seven million refugees in Europe, and several million internally displaced persons. Additionally, over a million people have left occupied territories for Russia. That means nearly half the population is not residing where they originally lived, and some have no plans to return. How can elections be organized under these conditions? I don’t know – nobody knows exactly how to prepare for them.”
Another issue that concerns Ukrainian politicians is the challenging state of Ukrainian society after the war ends. First, the fighting is unlikely to conclude with the liberation of all occupied territories, meaning a painful debate on this issue may emerge in Ukraine. Other factors such as the reintegration of war-traumatized individuals and rising unemployment could also create serious problems.
Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko grimly predicted:
“Our army is nearly a million strong. Once the fighting ends, a third of them will be placed in reserve, returning to civilian life. These people will need jobs as quickly as possible, and then elections will begin. I’m afraid there will be a struggle for destruction, and compromises will be difficult for society to accept. And at that moment, elections will be held. All political forces will use the same slogans, and I fear riots could break out.”
How Long Will It Take to Prepare for Elections?
Statisticians and officials interviewed by Kyiv Post say the process will not be quick. It will require not only extensive work on voter registries and security measures but also solutions for how millions of Ukrainians abroad will be able to vote – since diplomatic institutions as polling stations will not be sufficient for such numbers.
Aivazovska points out that the experience most like Ukraine’s situation would be the post-war elections in former Yugoslavia in the 1990s – specifically in Bosnia and Herzegovina after a series of brutal conflicts. Even then, holding elections in 2025, even if hostilities were to cease early, seems highly unlikely.
“Six months after a war of this magnitude, with widespread destruction – including of electoral infrastructure – is hardly enough time,” says Aivazovska. She recalled that in the Balkans it took up to a year to restore basic infrastructure before elections could happen.
She continues: “New states had no prior electoral practice, and implementing elections under the Dayton Agreement took 9 to 12 months. Our situation is even worse – destruction is colossal, infrastructure needs to be rebuilt, security and cybersecurity ensured, and extensive work is needed on voter registries.”
At a Low Start
Nevertheless, Ukrainian politicians are not deterred. Although every deputy from every political faction cautiously starts conversations with “it is unclear when the war will end,” deeper discussions reveal that all parties are already preparing for elections.
Political strategists interviewed by Kyiv Post confirm that parties have begun forming campaign headquarters and strategizing their messaging.
Signs of political activity were evident at the “Democracy and Sustainability” Forum, where leading lawmakers and Kyiv’s mayor participated. Initially, all speakers focused on war and unity themes, but the discussion soon shifted to politics.
“We remember February 24 – there were no political factions in the Verkhovna Rada, not a single one. There was one defensive coalition; we were united. Politics will eventually return to the Verkhovna Rada, but the spirit of unity must be preserved,” said Olena Shuliak, head of the presidential party Servant of the People in Ukraine’s legislature.
However, her political opponent, Iryna Herashchenko, head of former President Petro Poroshenko’s European Solidarity party, hinted otherwise. She claimed there are no “enemies” in Verkhovna Rada (those who are “in the Kremlin”), but there are “healthy political forces and not-so-healthy ones” – a clear jab at Zelensky’s party, which triggered nervous smiles in the audience. She then launched a critique against the Servant of the People initiative to purchase Russian nuclear reactors from Bulgaria to complete the Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Plant.
Herashchenko said: “Right now, the Verkhovna Rada is debating one of the most dangerous laws – an attempt to spend €600 million ($622.1 million) on purchasing Russian equipment for nuclear plants! When people say there are no parties, it’s an attempt to devalue politics. [The legislature] should be independent, with a defined role and function. Politicians may change, but strong institutions must remain. And I see the real danger in the erosion of these institutions.”
Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko, whose party once allied with Poroshenko’s, added fuel to the fire, arguing that local self-government in Ukraine is under attack. Though initially avoiding the election topic, he soon engaged.
“Everyone is talking about elections, but we are losing territories and people every day. When peace is restored, no one knows,” he said.
Then, unexpectedly, he suggested that the active phase of the war could end soon.
“We might see the end of hostilities in a month or two. Under what conditions it is unclear, but it likely won’t be positive. The so-called compromise could be very painful for every Ukrainian,” Klitschko said tensely.
Suddenly, the conversation turned to exactly what politicians wanted: elections and a post-war process in Ukraine. The issues raised by the audience were also in this vein: ensuring preparations for the elections, stability of power, the formation of a government of national unity, and so on. However, the politicians on stage simply ignored these concerns, caught up in mutual accusations.
“Almost the entire society should be reformed. And one of the main reforms, which we are coordinating with Brussels and our partners, is self-government. This is one of the most successful reforms. It is the basis, the foundation of democracy,” Klitschko said, noticeably raising his voice. “And it cannot be destroyed!”
A few days earlier, the anti-corruption authorities had begun detaining Kyiv officials close to him, accusing them of corruption.
Adding fuel to the fire was one of the leading volunteers and, according to sociologists, a possible future party leader – volunteer Serhiy Prytula, who has often been criticized by representatives of Poroshenko’s party.
“Unity is when no one pulls the blanket over themselves, and everyone takes hold of the edges and moves together toward the result,” Prytula said. “But when a person writes ‘unity’ on the wall with one hand and holds a knife in the other, stabbing fellow participants of the volunteer movement – that is not unity, that is betrayal.”
Foreign guests who had come to the forum to discuss post-war reconstruction watched this purely political skirmish with surprise. The atmosphere was as tense as possible. It was visibly clear that the leaders of political forces were already mobilized for battle – a battle that would inevitably erupt as soon as the war ended.
This article will be continued.
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