ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 13, 2025

Key Takeaways from ISW:

• Ukraine’s European partners announced new military assistance to Ukraine amid the February 12 Ukraine Defense Contact Group (the Ramstein format) meeting.
• Russia reportedly lost just over 5,000 tanks and armored vehicles during 2024 compared with 3,000 in 2023.
• IISS noted that Russia has adapted some of its tactics to address ongoing equipment shortages and is increasingly relying on infantry-led assaults to advance along the frontline.
• It remains unclear if Russia can repair and newly-produce a sufficient number of tanks and armored vehicles to replace losses in Ukraine and equip new Russian units.
• Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (EFIS) assessed that Russia is attempting to build its capabilities not only to support Russia’s war effort in Ukraine but also to prepare for a potential future war with NATO, which is consistent with ISW’s assessments about ongoing Russian efforts to prepare its military and society for a future conflict with NATO in the medium to long-term.
• Ukrainian forces continue to target Russian energy and military infrastructure as part of an ongoing strike campaign against Russian defense industrial enterprises.
• The Moldovan Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) announced on February 13 the termination of the Moldovan-Russian Intergovernmental Agreement on the establishment and functioning of Russian cultural centers in Moldova in response to ongoing reports of Russian drones violating Moldovan airspace.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Borova and Siversk.
• Russian officials continue efforts to increase recruitment for the “BARS-Bryansk” volunteer territorial defense detachment.

Authors: Angelica Evans, Davit Gasparyan, Nicole Wolkov, Olivia Gibson, and Frederick W. Kagan.

See the original here.