Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 18, 2025

Key Takeaways from ISW:

• Russian and American officials met in Saudi Arabia for bilateral talks about the war in Ukraine on February 18, but Russia continues to display no indications that it is prepared to make any meaningful concessions on Ukraine as assessed by Western intelligence and US officials in line with ISW’s longstanding assessment.
• Many recent Russian statements show that the Kremlin remains uninterested in engaging in good faith negotiations and retains his objective of destroying the Ukrainian state while the Kremlin has offered no public indication that it would materially compromise.
• Many recent Russian statements show that Putin remains uninterested in engaging in good faith negotiations and retains his objective of destroying the Ukrainian state while the Kremlin has offered no public indication that it would materially compromise. 
• Russian officials at the bilateral meeting continued to signal the Kremlin’s unwillingness to negotiate on the war in Ukraine and determination to achieve its maximalist objectives in Ukraine.
• Zelensky, in contrast to Kremlin officials, continues to demonstrate Ukraine’s willingness to compromise to bring about an enduring end to the war.
• Russian officials in Saudi Arabia began what will likely be an ongoing effort to push the United States into accepting Russian offers of economic and investment measures in lieu of any actual Russian concessions on Ukraine.
• Dmitriev attempted to frame Russian-offered economic incentives as more beneficial for the US than for Russia, but in reality Russia needs economic relief as soon as possible to stave off looming crises in 2025 and 2026.
• US officials continue to meet with European leaders about support for Ukraine.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Borova, Toretsk, and Velyka Novosilka.
• A Russian milblogger and former Storm-Z instructor continued to complain that the Russian military command’s lack of response to systemic issues is limiting Russian advances near Pokrovsk.
• Russian opposition outlet SOTA reported on February 18 that Republic of Mordovia Head Artyom Zdunov announced that regional authorities are raising one-time payments for recruits who sign a contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) from 400,000 rubles ($4,369) to 1.1 million rubles ($12,015).
• Russian forces continue to deploy wounded and medically unfit soldiers to the frontline in an effort to address personnel shortages.

Authors: Angelica Evans, Christina Harward, Davit Gasparyan, Olivia Gibson, Grace Mappes, Kelly Campa, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Frederick W. Kagan with Nate Trotter.

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