US and allied intelligence suggest that Russian President Vladimir Putin remains determined to control all of Ukraine, NBC News reported, citing multiple Western and US congressional officials.
As the Trump administration initiates preliminary discussions with Russian officials to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine, intelligence assessments suggest that Putin has no genuine interest in a lasting peace deal.
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“We have zero intelligence that Putin is interested in a real peace deal right now,” one congressional official told NBC News.
The officials, who spoke anonymously due to the sensitive nature of the intelligence, suggested that Putin might agree to a ceasefire or negotiations—but not as a step toward genuine peace.
Rather, they believe he could use talks as a means to buy time for his military to regroup and rebuild.
According to the report, intelligence assessments indicate that Putin still believes he can outlast Ukraine and its European allies, eventually achieving his objective of full control over all Ukrainian territory.
A Western intelligence official said that battlefield losses have not deterred Putin, as he believes he is “winning.”
US and Western officials remain skeptical that Putin is willing to reach a lasting settlement. However, the NBC News report says that some officials believe he could engage in negotiations to gauge potential concessions and attempt to restore his standing on the global stage after years of diplomatic isolation.
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There are currently no indications that Putin plans to withdraw Russian troops from Ukraine or reduce military deployments near the Ukrainian border, intelligence officials said.
The report also highlights that Putin appears emboldened by recent statements from Trump administration officials signaling that NATO membership for Ukraine is not seen as a viable outcome of negotiations. A Western intelligence official stated that Putin’s objectives remain “maximalist.”
US intelligence has faced challenges in fully assessing Putin’s thinking, but sources told NBC News that intelligence from both US and allied nations has consistently indicated Putin’s continued ambition to dominate Ukraine.
As the Trump administration takes over from Biden’s, the Ukrainian government remains concerned about being sidelined in negotiations and fears that Russia will enter talks unwilling to make meaningful compromises, according to current and former US officials cited in the report.
Speaking to reporters at his Florida resort on Tuesday, US President Donald Trump expressed optimism about the initial meetings between Russian officials in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, calling them “very good” and saying he was “much more confident” that negotiations could lead to a resolution.
“Russia wants to do something. They want to stop the savage barbarianism,” Trump said.
The talks have drawn criticism from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who was not invited to the initial round. His exclusion reportedly left him infuriated, but Trump dismissed his concerns.
“I’m very disappointed, I hear that they’re upset about not having a seat,” Trump said, downplaying the issue.
“Today I heard, oh, well, we weren’t invited. Well, you’ve had a seat for three years, and a long time before that... You should have never started it. You could have made a deal,” he added.
Trump’s comments, implying that Ukraine bore responsibility for the war, sparked shock in US media, given that Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and launched a full-scale invasion in February 2022.
Meanwhile, US special envoy to Russia and Ukraine, Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Keith Kellogg, is set to meet Zelensky in Kyiv on Wednesday. A key topic of discussion is expected to be Trump’s proposal for future US military aid to Ukraine in exchange for rare earth metals—a plan that Kyiv has now reviewed in detail.
According to a leaked document, the proposal would have required Ukraine to hand over about half of its rare earth wealth while receiving little in return, including no security guarantees.
Separately, European leaders will hold a second round of talks on Ukraine in Paris on Feb. 26 at the Elysée Palace.
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