ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 24, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago on February 24, 2022. Ukraine has not been defeated or destroyed but remains resilient and innovative in the face of this unjustified Russian aggression.
• Russia has accumulated unsustainable personnel and vehicle losses in the last three years since Russia’s full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022.
• The United Nations (UN) General Assembly passed a Ukrainian- and European-backed resolution on February 24 commemorating the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine that recognized Russia as the aggressor in the war, called for a just peace in Ukraine, and supported Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
• Recent polling indicates that Russians are increasingly supportive of Russia continuing the war in Ukraine until it achieves complete Ukrainian capitulation but are simultaneously starting to feel the economic toll of the three years of Russia’s war – casting doubt on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ability to continue to balance “butter and guns” at home in the medium- to long-term.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin currently remains committed to continuing his war in Ukraine despite rising domestic political and economic pressure and has shown no indication that he is rethinking his determination to compel Ukraine to surrender.
• Kremlin officials formally rejected the possibility of a ceasefire on any terms other than the complete capitulation of Ukraine and the West on February 24, further underscoring Russia’s unwillingness to make compromises during future peace negotiations.
• European leaders announced a series of new aid packages during their visit to Kyiv on February 24 for the third anniversary of the full-scale invasion on February 24.
• Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka.
• The Kremlin continues to use Muslim religious and cultural structures in Russia for military recruitment.

Authors: Nicole Wolkov, Angelica Evans, Olivia Gibson, Davit Gasparyan, and Frederick W. Kagan with Nate Trotter and William Runkel.

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