• After 3 years of conflict, Russia’s Aerospace Forces, despite technological and numerical advantage, have failed to gain air superiority over Ukraine. Russia has resorted to using their tactical level aviation - such as SU-34 aircraft - as airborne artillery.
  • Russia’s consistent use of One Way Attack Uncrewed Aerial Systems (OWA UAS) has likely allowed Russia the space and time to recuperate its Long Range Aviation fleet, and their associated Air Launched Cruise Missile and Air Launched Ballistic Missile stocks. While Russia retains the ability to use these assets, the ultimate effect is that the Air Defence picture for Ukraine is increasingly busy, complex and challenging. With this combination of systems the Russians have consistently targeted Ukrainian critical national infrastructure and air bases.
  • Ukraine has successfully used UAS against military targets and infrastructure in Russia with increased regularity, including multiple recent strikes on Russian oil refineries. In September 2024 Ukraine also struck four Russian strategic ammunition depots, including Toropets (see imagery), hundreds of kilometres from Ukraine. The total tonnage of ammunition destroyed across the sites represents the largest loss of Russian, and North Korean supplied, ammunition during the war.
  • Such Ukrainian successes highlight Russia’s continued inability to protect strategic military sites from attack, as well as indicating the challenge confronting Russia to protect its infrastructure balanced against protecting its operations at the front line.
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