ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 15, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Russian milbloggers and Ukrainian officials continue to deny Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unsubstantiated claim that Russian forces have encircled a significant number of Ukrainian troops in Kursk Oblast.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in Kursk Oblast but have not completely pushed Ukrainian forces out of the area as of this publication.
• Ukrainian officials expressed concern about Russian ground operations in northern Sumy Oblast but doubt Russia’s ability to conduct an effective concerted offensive operation against Sumy City.
• The Kremlin is likely preparing to intensify a narrative that accuses Ukrainian forces of war crimes in Kursk Oblast in an attempt to discredit the Ukrainian military, erode Western support for Ukraine, and spoil or delay straightforward discussions about the 30-day ceasefire that US President Donald Trump proposed to Putin.
• Russian forces conducted drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of March 14 to 15, including conducting their third double-tap strike against Ukraine in the past week.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed the official Ukrainian delegation to “engage with Ukraine’s international partners” in the negotiation process to end the war on March 15.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Russian forces recently advanced in Sumy Oblast and near Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk.

Authors: Nicole Wolkov, Grace Mappes, Angelica Evans, Olivia Gibson, and George Barros.

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