ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 16, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz stated on March 16 that Ukraine will receive unspecified security guarantees in exchange for unspecified territorial concessions.
• The current frontlines do not provide the strategic depth that Ukraine will need to reliably defend against renewed Russian aggression.
• Russian officials maintain their maximalist territorial claims over all occupied Ukraine and significant parts of unoccupied Ukraine, however.
• Russian officials have given no public indications that they are willing to make concessions on their territorial or security demands of Ukraine.
• Russia continues to seize on diplomatic engagements with the United States to normalize its war demands.
• The United Kingdom (UK) convened a virtual Coalition of the Willing summit on March 15 to reiterate support for Ukraine and discuss plans for peace.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Borova and Russian forces advanced in Sumy Oblast and near Velyka Novosilka.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues efforts to posture as solving issues with the Russian military.

Authors: Nicole Wolkov, Grace Mappes, Angelica Evans, Olivia Gibson, and George Barros.

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