ANALYSIS: Has Zelensky Finally Struck Out at Belarus’s Lukashenko?

In a shocking statement on Sunday, President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that Belarusian autocrat Alexander Lukashenko had apologized for Belarus’s complicity in the war at the onset of the full-scale invasion.

Lukashenko even suggested Zelensky could retaliate by bombing Belarus’s Mozyr oil refinery, Zelensky said.

The statements came just weeks before Belarus’s upcoming presidential elections on Jan. 26 – though it is unclear if the two events are related.

Lukashenko has held the Belarusian presidency since 1994 and aligned himself with Moscow. He is accused of rigging the previous presidential election in 2000, brutally crushing the mass peaceful protests that followed, and planning to hold on to power for as long as he can.

What did Lukashenko (reportedly) say?

During a podcast released on Sunday with US podcaster Lex Fridman, Zelensky said he had spoken with Lukashenko by phone shortly after the full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022, during which the latter reportedly had apologized for the troops and missiles launched from Belarus against Ukraine.

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“He said that ‘it was not me, it was [Russian President Vladimir] Putin who launched missiles from my territory.’ These are his words. I have witnesses.”

“He apologized, he said: ‘Believe me, Volodya, it wasn’t me, I told him not to, it was without me,’” Zelensky told Fridman while recalling the early days of the 2022 invasion. Volodya was an endearing version of Zelensky’s first name typically reserved for close acquaintances.

Zelensky said he responded by calling Lukashenko a murderer, just like Putin, which was when Lukashenko proposed Zelensky hit the Mozyr oil refineries in Belarus as a bizarre form of retaliation.

“[Lukashenko said:] ‘Understand, you cannot fight with the Russians.’ I said to him, ‘How could you let this happen?’ He said: ‘All right, hit the refinery, you know how much it means to me.’

“I said: ‘What are you talking about?’” Zelensky recalled the purported conversation.

Later, in August 2023, Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) claimed that Russian intelligence tried to drag Minsk into the war in Ukraine by staging a false flag attack at Mozyr using saboteurs who entered Belarus disguised as Wagner mercenaries, and who would then commit the attack pretending to be Ukrainians.

What’s the implication?

One could interpret Zelensky’s latest statements as a jab to the cult of personality Lukashenko has cultivated back home by hinting he isn’t as hawkish as he sounds – especially on the eve of the 2025 elections, where Lukashenko is set to run again to cement his legitimacy following heavy protests during the last election in 2020.

It could also be a jab against Lukashenko’s ties with Putin by sowing doubts on the former’s loyalty.

But then again, these are speculations at best. Yet here it should also be noted that in his New Year’s address, Zelensky added Belarus to Georgia and Moldova when he spoke of nations resisting Russian domination and stressed that Ukraine’s with them.

“And that is why it is so crucial today to support all peoples who defend freedom. Those who refuse to give it up in Chișinău. Those who are fighting for their future in Tbilisi. And I am sure that the day will come when we will all say: ‘Long Live Belarus!’” Zelensky said, referencing a protest slogan against the Lukashenko regime commonly used by the Belarusian opposition.

This apparent change of approach was immediately welcomed on X (formerly Twitter) by Belarusian democratic opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. 

“Thank you, 🇺🇦 President @ZelenskyyUa, for your powerful call to support Belarusians defending freedom. Our fight for dignity and democracy unites us. Together, we prove that no dictator can break the spirit of those who believe in freedom,” Tsikhanouskaya wrote.

Behind-the-scene discussions

Lukashenko is known for his bizarre statements at times – but assuming what Zelensky said was true, it could potentially explain Kyiv’s approach to Minsk throughout the last three years of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

Despite Belarus’s complicity in the war by allowing Russia to use it as a staging area for the Ukraine invasion, Ukraine has yet to attack Belarus.

Likewise, Belarus has not sent troops to fight against Ukraine either, despite the former’s intermittent troop concentrations on the Ukrainian border.

Of course, not having to fight a war (for Lukashenko) and fight another front (for Zelensky) is a good enough reason not to declare war on each other. But what’s perplexing is the lukewarm attitude Kyiv has had towards the Belarusian opposition throughout most of the war despite the mutual democratic movements – which is all the more perplexing considering the substantial number of Belarusians now fighting in Ukraine’s Kalinouski Regiment.

Considering how this purported conversation only came to light close to three years later, it is possible that there are more behind-the-scene talks between Kyiv and Minsk than the public is unaware of – including one involving a Ukrainian lawmaker that only came to light later.

That same lawmaker, Yevhen Shevchenko, was later charged with treason by Ukraine in November 2024.

What about Mozyr?

The suggestion to hit the Mozyr oil refinery is also significant – Ukraine had been receiving diesel from Mozyr despite Minsk’s alliance with Moscow until sanctions were imposed in October 2022.

It means that when the purported phone call took place, Ukraine might have still been receiving diesel from Mozyr.

In a 2021 analysis for Ukrainian news outlet LIGA, Sergey Kuyun, director of the A-95 Consulting Group, said “Ukraine forms the main profit of Belarusian oil refining.”

“The Mozyr oil refinery, which is located on the border with us, works almost entirely for the Ukrainian market in terms of diesel fuel and bitumen, while Belarus is supplied mainly by the Novopolotsk Oil Refinery, located in the north,” Kuyun said.

Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council began imposing sanctions on the refinery on Oct. 19, 2022.

In short, Kyiv paid Minsk for fuel from Mozyr. So why did Lukashenko suggest Zelensky hit the facilities? Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko said it could be a misunderstanding between Zelensky and Lukashenko, or it could just be the latter’s attempt at manipulating Kyiv into striking the refinery and bringing Minsk into the war.

“I didn’t quite understand this episode either. Maybe Lukashenko showed in this way that it would be compensation, they say, you can answer in this way. Here it is also possible what is called misunderstanding in English, mutual misunderstanding, when Lukashenko meant one thing and Zelensky something else,” Fesenko told a Belarusian news outlet.

Fesenko said it could also be Lukashenko simply suggesting, “we hit you, so you can hit us back,” but there could be a more sinister motive.

“In fact, this could be a reason for entering the war so that the Lukashenko regime could justify its participation in the conflict. This, too, manifests Lukashenko’s cunning, duplicitous, even deceptive nature.

“On the one hand, he pretended to apologize to Zelensky, and on the other hand, he actually offered a provocation – to strike at the territory of Belarus, so that it was used as an excuse to justify participation in the war against Ukraine,” he added.

Is Lukashenko truly sorry about the war?

No one knows, but Minsk did have a role in facilitating early peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow.

That said, Lukashenko has also been maintaining close military ties with Moscow following his purported call with Zelensky.

In December 2022, Lukashenko urged closer military cooperation with Russia and ordered a “snap check of combat readiness” of his troops. A month later, the two countries held joint air force exercises.

In March 2023, Lukashenko agreed to host Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus, which Minsk finalized in May that year. Minsk later altered its military doctrine in January 2024 to accommodate the use of Moscow’s nuclear arsenal.

After the Wagner mutiny in 2023, Belarus agreed with Russia to host Wagner fighters – which could be interpreted as one of Minsk’s attempts to be a mediator between the Kremlin and other parties.

In April 2024, Lukashenko said Belarus is actively preparing for war though it isn’t seeking any conflict. However, he also said Belarus is the “most peace-loving nation” in September 2023 and said a war in the country was “impossible.”

At the same time, Lukashenko also called for peace talks with Ukraine – under Moscow-friendly terms – on multiple occasions: once in October 2023, another in August 2024 after Ukraine’s first Kursk incursion, among other occasions.

Is Lukashenko truly sorry about the war? Has he been misrepresented or misunderstood, or did he indeed try to save face? Who knows. A vassal is nevertheless expected not to step out of line, if indeed he did.