Thinking Out Loud

As the leader of a country embattled now for almost three years in an intensive war with Russia, and for over ten years in a simmering military struggle with its rapacious neighbor, President Volodymyr Zelensky has shown considerable ingenuity and courage in an increasingly difficult situation.

Not only is the situation on the front lines in the east increasingly worrisome and Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine’s cities and vital infrastructure intensifying, but the scope and continuity of support from Ukraine’s Western supporters hard to predict.

The election of Donald Trump as the new president of the US, the domestic political crises in Germany and France affecting its leaders, the rise of the far right in Europe, and the volatile situation in the Middle East have all in their way had an impact on Ukraine’s predicament and prospects.

The fears and uncertainty generated in Ukraine by the ascendancy of the Republican forces rallied behind Trump reached their culmination with his re-election last month. Trump’s dismissive comments about Zelensky’s persistent pleas for substantial support and claims that as a friend of Vladimir Putin he would be able to end the Russian-Ukrainian war even before taking office raised fears that he intended to sell out Ukraine.

Wisely, the Ukrainian president swallowed his pride and did not publicly take offence – not that he had much of a choice in the circumstances.

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Instead of alienating Trump, Zelensky has chosen to play along with the President-Elect, applauding his “resolute” efforts to find a peaceful solution to Russia's war against Ukraine. Moreover, he has made gestures to ease Trump’s efforts to be seen as a peace-maker.

First, Zelensky has signaled his willingness to support peace negotiations in search of a temporary compromise solution, without conceding on Ukraine's principled positions.

He has admitted that Ukraine cannot return the territories occupied by Russia on the battlefield, but only diplomatically, and revealed the extent of Ukraine's losses.

Zelensky has therefore helped Trump by making it clear that he is amenable enough, contrasting this with Russia's inflexible position. And this itself has diverted the pressure onto Moscow, as it reels from its humiliating setback in Syria.

It was clear that Trump was pleased with his meeting with Zelensky in Paris brokered by French President Emanuel Macron.

“He wants to have a ceasefire,” Trump told the New York Post. “He wants to make peace. We didn’t talk about the details. He thinks it’s time, and Putin should think it’s time because he’s lost — when you lose 700,000 people, it’s time. It’s not going to end until there’s a peace.”

So, both Trump and Zelensky appear to have changed – softened? – their tune, but the familiar shrill rhetoric emerging from Moscow reflects an enduring intransigent “all or nothing” position.

Trump is discovering what Zelensky has known all along: in this situation, there are no quick fixes.