Since taking office, the Trump administration has made ending the war in Ukraine a top priority. But European allies worry that in the rush for a quick resolution, Washington is giving the Kremlin exactly what it wants - letting Russia off the hook for launching the largest war in Europe since World War II and allowing it to walk away without consequences.
The fallout from the Munich Conference has only deepened those concerns. For the first time in decades, European leaders are openly questioning the role of the US as the continent’s security guarantor. Is that perception justified? And could abandoning Ukraine prove to be one of the biggest strategic missteps in modern U.S. history?
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Ukrainian armed forces
Today, Ukraine has the largest army in Europe. Estimates place its troop strength between 700,000 and 1 million - larger than the combined forces of France, Germany, Spain, and the UK.
But Ukraine’s true advantage goes beyond sheer numbers. It is also the only European military with large-scale, modern battlefield experience. Ukrainian forces haven’t just learned to operate Western weaponry - they’ve used it in real combat and understand firsthand which systems perform effectively and which have critical flaws.
Ukraine Prevented Two Massive Russian Offensives in 2024, 2025 – HUR Intel
Unlike NATO armies, whose doctrines are built around simulations and limited operations, Ukraine has stress-tested these strategies in a full-scale war against the Alliance’s greatest threat: Russia.
If Ukraine falls, all of that knowledge, technology, and combat expertise could be absorbed by Russia. The Kremlin wouldn’t just seize territory - it would gain access to Europe’s most battle-hardened military. This would create a new militarized superpower with a combined force exceeding two million troops.
Defense industrial power
Over the past three years of war, both Ukraine and Russia have significantly expanded their defense industries. According to Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, the country has become the world’s largest producer of combat drones, surpassing even China.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has also announced that Ukraine has completed development of its own ballistic missile and is actively working on a domestic equivalent of the Patriot air defense system.
This rapid growth in Ukraine’s defense sector is happening amid full-scale war. At the same time, Russia claims to be now producing three times more missiles than the US and Europe combined.
If the Kremlin seizes control of Ukraine, it will gain access to its advanced military technologies, unique innovations, and manufacturing capabilities. That includes major defense firms such as Antonov and Motor Sich, as well as private companies specializing in naval drones, strike UAVs, electronic warfare systems, howitzers, and armored vehicles.
Should these assets fall into Russian hands, they could dramatically enhance Moscow’s military-industrial complex—particularly in missile production.
Natural Resources
Ukraine holds the largest uranium and lithium reserves in Europe, making it a critical player in the region’s energy technology market. In addition, its substantial oil and gas deposits further enhance its strategic importance.
But Ukraine’s wealth isn’t limited to its natural resources. Known as the “breadbasket of Europe,” it is one of the world’s leading agricultural producers and the largest exporter of grain to both Europe and Africa. In an era of growing global crises, its role in food security cannot be overstated.
If occupied, these resources would fall under Kremlin control. Russia, which has long used energy as a geopolitical weapon, would gain another powerful tool - food supply manipulation. Moscow’s expansionist ambitions could turn it not only into an energy monopolist but also a dominant force in global food markets, capable of weaponizing hunger as an instrument of influence.
Political shift
If Russia triumphs in Ukraine, the global balance of power will shift dramatically. Moscow’s allies in Europe - Serbia, Hungary, and Slovakia - would feel emboldened to realign their political and economic policies toward the Kremlin, threatening to fracture the European Union from within.
Beyond that, Russia would intensify its support for pro-Kremlin political forces across the continent. Far-right movements in Germany, Marine Le Pen’s party in France, and Russian-backed lobbyists in Italy and the UK - Moscow has long cultivated influence in Europe, and these voices would only grow louder and more aggressive.
But the consequences wouldn’t stop at Europe’s borders. A Ukrainian defeat would deal a devastating blow to America’s credibility as the world’s primary security guarantor. Key US allies, including South Korea and Japan, may begin questioning Washington’s reliability and seek alternative ways to ensure their own security. This could accelerate the formation of new military alliances - or even force some nations to reconsider their stance on nuclear proliferation, further destabilizing the global balance of power.
The war in Ukraine is not just another regional conflict. It is a defining moment that will determine the future of the international security order.
The Rise of Dictatorships
If Russia is allowed to annex Ukraine without consequences, it will set a dangerous precedent for authoritarian regimes worldwide, ushering in a new era of global instability. A weak Western response would signal that international law is no longer an obstacle to expansionist ambitions.
What, then, would stop Turkey from exerting military pressure on Greece or expanding its influence in Africa? Why wouldn’t China seize the opportunity to invade Taiwan or Iran to strike Israel? What would prevent India and Pakistan from spiraling into open conflict? A world where borders no longer matter will quickly descend into chaos, making an arms race inevitable.
The US and its allies now face a critical choice: act decisively and uphold global security or allow the international order to collapse. This is not the time for half-measures or political expediency - what’s needed are not just easy decisions, but the right ones. The choices made today will shape not only Ukraine’s future but also the long-term stability and peace of the world.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
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